Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,269$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(631 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,218.4}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,218.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(24.2 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(105.2\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $56,043$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(3.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{65,575.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 82.3)}}\) (asimptote \(65,575.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,053$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(704 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,889.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,889.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50,990$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,708$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,306.4}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 32.2)}}\) (asimptote \(8,306.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $244$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(76.4 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234.9}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 29.5)}}\) (asimptote \(234.9\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $326$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,119$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,046.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,046.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $326$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(73.5 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{321.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 35.6)}}\) (asimptote \(321.3\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $593$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,544$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,082.4}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(12,082.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $600$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(164 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{580.0}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(580.0\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $502$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,816$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(704 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,804.3}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,804.3\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(4.57 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.1}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 22.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $60,348$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,171.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(58,171.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,683$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(40.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,400.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,400.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,941$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $301,935$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(4.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294,848.2}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 53.5)}}\) (asimptote \(294,848.2\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $42,373$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(7.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,345.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(40,345.1\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $258,249$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $238,159$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(5.92 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,371.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(231,371.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,514$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(7.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,347.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(33,347.7\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,101$ on 2020-06-18
